Nearby corn prices have lost over 70 cents/bu. in the last 10 days, led by a collapse in the July contract specifically and the old crop/new crop spread in general. Cash corn quotes in Southern Minnesota reached nearly $6.50/bu. as recently as May 21. Today they are just under $5.80/bu. The entire collapse can be attributed to the collapse in the July contract, which closed at $6.33/bu. on May 21 and currently trades under $5.50/bu. The new crop December contract is off less than 20 cents over the same time period.
The nearby corn basis remains strong – 20-25 cents over the July contract is the norm thru much of Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa. This is the earliest and strongest corn basis on record.
A collapsing old crop/new crop inverse and a very strong basis are sending mixed signals in corn. In my opinion, both the basis and spreads are leading indicators for future price direction. They ought to agree!
This is why I like to describe inverted markets as both exhilarating and terrifying.