We never got there. In early September, the Nov’12 contract peaked at $13.99½/bu. That is correct: for lack of a lousy ½ cent/bu., I passed on a great pricing opportunity. The Nov’12 contract proceeded to trade all the way down to $11.20/bu. in late November and again in mid-December. I grumbled the whole way down.

Well, the new year is here and I think it is time to turn my attention – serious attention – to pricing new crop soybeans. I start by telling myself to “forget last year” (and nearly $14 soybeans) and to thank goodness for an end-of-year rally that put $1 back on the lows set last month. I took action on the market closes of January 3 ($12.29 Nov’12 futures). It is not nearly as good as the $14 available in early September but it is, by most measures, a profitable price for soybeans.

You can find my 2012 pre-harvest marketing plan for soybeans here.

The holidays are here and it’s time (if you haven’t already done so)  to turn our attention to 2012. My pre-harvest marketing plan for 2012 spring wheat is here. I first published it last August and the initial sales were made at very good levels. Which leaves me, of course, with that “I should’a sold more” feeling.

Grain prices are searching for direction. The bull market died during the collapse last September, but it doesn’t feel like a bear market today. We are searching for direction. I’d like to see a bull market resume but, until then, I want to be ready to sell rallies.

LULU.com says this is their last sale before the holidays – one more chance to buy Grain Marketing is Simple for a friend or family member. Go to the website here and type in Grain Marketing is Simple in the “find” bar.

Enter coupon code COUNTDOWN305 at checkout and receive 25% off your order. The maximum savings for this offer is $150.  Sorry, but this offer is only valid in US Dollars and cannot be applied to previous orders. You can only use this code once per account, and unfortunately you can’t use this coupon in combination with other coupon codes. This great offer expires on December 14, 2011 at 11:59 PM PST, so don’t miss out!

Enter coupon code CYBERMONDAY305 at checkout and receive 30% off your order. The maximum savings for this offer is $300. Enter coupon code MORECYBERMONDAY305 at checkout and receive 35% off your order of $750 or more. The maximum savings for this offer is $750.  Sorry, but these offers are only valid in US Dollars and cannot be applied to previous orders. You can only use these codes once per account, and unfortunately you can’t use these coupons in combination with other coupon codes. This great offer expires on November 28, 2011 at 11:59 PM PST, so don’t miss out!

Several weeks ago, I asked a colleague at the Center for Farm Financial Management to update his projections for production costs in Southern Minnesota. Estimated production costs are a very important number in my approach to pre-harvest marketing. They represent my minimum pricing objective – a number, under which, I am unwilling to price grain before harvest. The update was needed because costs do change. Fertilizer prices, for example, are much higher today than when we put together a quick projection for 2012 costs last spring.

Hmm, the updated projections were surprising, and much higher than the quick projections from last spring. These higher projections have prompted me to revise my 2012 pre-harvest marketing plan for corn. The new minimum pricing objective is $4.60 cash corn, or 35 cents/bu. higher than the original figure. In terms of a new crop futures price, the minimum pricing objective is $5.10 Dec’12 futures (currently near the $5.40/bu. mark). That’s 45 cents/bu. higher than the original figure (yes, I widened my expectations for a new crop basis to 50 cents under the Dec’12 contract). In addition to raising the minimum price, all other price targets have been revised upward.

All of my marketing plans, including my revised corn plan for 2012, can be found here.

Forget last year. I’m staying conservative and selling the carry.

Simply go to http://www.lulu.com/?cid=112211_en_email_BUYMYBOOK305. In the find bar, type in “Grain Marketing is Simple.” At checkout, use the coupon code BUYMYBOOK305.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

Buy 1 book get the second 50% off when you use coupon code SECRET305 at checkout. Maximum savings with this promotion is $50. Print and tax amounts are excluded. You can only use the code once per account, and you can’t use this coupon in combination with other coupon codes. This great offer ends on November 18, 2011 at 11:59 PM so try not to procrastinate!  You must have at least two books in your cart for this promotion to work.  This promotion works for self-purchases (i.e., buying your own book) or purchasing someone else’s book.

Commodity Challenge

Most of the games on Commodity Challenge are closed to participants outside of a particular marketing group or classroom. To say they are closed simply means that these games are password protected. However, I also have a number of open games where no password is needed to play. I put the open games out there for you adventurous types who would like to explore Commodity Challenge. You can place orders, check account actions and just develop a feel for how the game works. Remember that Commodity Challenge is an educational game. Use it to explore new pricing tools or practice executing a marketing plan. You might have a little fun and be inspired to have a game set-up for a group in your area.

Virtually all of the games played on Commodity Challenge are old crop games where the game assumes that your harvested grain is held in storage. All cash price quotes are spot prices, or the price for grain delivered today. Storage costs accrue. Old crop open games include the Iowa Corn Open 2011, the MN Soybean Open 2011 and the Montana open 2011.

Today I established three more open games which feature 2012 new crop pricing. These games include the Preharvest Corn Open, the Preharvest Soy Open and the Preharvest HRW Open. What makes these pre-harvest games different from other games is the price quote for each site. Quotes are not spot quotes but new crop quotes. By quoting prices for delivery at harvest, the competition becomes one where you are trying for the best price before harvest.

If you would like to compete in an open game, go to the Commodity Challenge website. You must register to play, and registration is free. Once signed in, look for an open game. You can participate in as many games as you wish.

If you would like to set up a game for your own small group, please contact me at usset001@umn.edu.

Enter coupon code VETERANS305 at checkout and receive 20% off your order. The maximum savings for this offer is $100. Sorry, but this offer is only valid in US Dollars and cannot be applied to previous orders. You can only use this code once per account, and unfortunately you can’t use this coupon in combination with other coupon codes. This great offers expires on November 11, 2011 at 11:59 PM, so don’t miss out! While very unlikely, we do reserve the right to change or revoke this offer at anytime, and of course we cannot offer this coupon where it is against the law to do so.