Posted by: usset001 | August 24, 2008

Spring Wheat: 2009 Pre-Harvest Marketing Plan

Seven months ago we all watched in amazement as nearby spring wheat prices soared above the $20 mark (and for me, the most amazing part of the surge was just how easily it occurred). At the time I could only look back with regret at 2008 sales made too early and too cheap. But I also kept one eye on 2009 pricing opportunites and, staying consistent with my desire for patience, I have waited (and waited) before taking actions to price wheat for 2009.

The 2008 spring wheat harvest has started and the waiting is over. My 2009 pre-harvest marketing plan for hard red spring wheat is now posted on the CFFM website.  Late February was the first of several opportunities to sell Sep’09 Minneapolis wheat futures at or above the $10 mark. Since then Sep’09 futures climbed as high as $11.60 in mid-March with several dips below the $9 mark. I’m happy to get one more shot at $10 wheat.

This plan is similar in approach and appearance to past years. The biggest change is in my minimum price objectives, which are set at $4.60 cash and $5.00 Sep’09 futures, 70 cents higher than year-ago levels. I can’t ignore rising production costs.

Ten dollar wheat doesn’t happen very often – before this year it had never happened – so I am comfortable with selling 40% of my expected production in 2009.


Responses

  1. In this case or marketing plan are you reccomending to lock in 40% of the inputs as well if one is locking in 40 % of the production.

    Do you feel it is very important to have all parts of the net profit equation locking in equal portions? I.E. Profit = revenue (locking part) – cost of goods (inputs) – expenses

    Do you feel that one could cross hedge if not locking in some of the inputs?

    Perhaps buying a crude call to offset against a rise in production costs, expenses, harvest costs, and input costs that are associated with crude?

  2. I want to take a vaction in Oklahoma to see the spring wheat harvest. When would it start also where would it be best to see. I am 68 years old very interested in large farms. Thanks Charlie

  3. i need to buy wheat but i need details of orgin and price per mt,ples


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