Posted by: usset001 | September 30, 2008

A serious retracement

New crop corn futures closed below the $5 mark for the first time in 8 months, $3 per bushel and 38% lower than the high in late June. New crop soybean futures closed below $10.50 per bushel, a price we haven’t seen since last December. That’s almost $6 (and 36%) off the high established in early July. Similar numbers prevail in the wheat market.

Cash prices? The 11th Commandment of grain marketing – “Thou shall not hold unpriced grain in the bin after July 1” – is still relevant. Since July 1, cash prices if corn and soybeans are off $2.75 and $6.00 respectively in Southwestern Minnesota.

A retracement of this magnitude is stunning, particularly when we consider these two facts; (1) USDA forecasts ethanol demand for corn will grow by 1.1 billion bushels and 37% in the 2008/2009 crop year that started on September 1 and (2) the carryout of soybeans is projected to stay the same, despite the fact that we planted 9 million more acres in 2008.


Responses

  1. do you think that we will bounce back? Or what should one do that didn’t sell much new crop and missed the boat given where we are at now?


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