Posted by: usset001 | August 5, 2009

One more chance at $10 soybeans

soybeanfieldEvery farmer is looking for the opportunity to sell new crop grain at a decent price. Right now, I think that $10 plus November soybean futures sounds like a decent price.

For now, let’s put aside the fact that the CBOT soybean futures market gave everyone the opportunity to sell Nov’09 soybeans at $10 or higher for 10 straight months, from December 2007 to early October 2008 (topping out, btw, at $15.54 in early July last year). It takes nerve to price grain more than one year in advance of harvest.

Nov’09 soybeans closed tonight at $10.45 per bushel. This is our third chance since the start of 2009 to secure a futures price above $10 for new crop soybeans. We greeted the new year with prices above $10 for nearly a week. We enjoyed a second rally above the $10 mark in mid-May, an opportunity that stuck around for nearly 6 weeks. One week ago, Nov’09 futures closed at $9.16. And now this week – back above the $10 mark for an encore performance.

I’m a baseball fan and I can’t help but remind you that it’s three strikes and your out.


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