Posted by: usset001 | March 29, 2010

Corn Futures Seasonals: Not Your Typical Year

We started the new year with Dec’10 corn futures trading at $4.45 per bushel. If there is such thing as a “typical” year, we would expect to get the opportunity to sell new crop corn futures at a price higher than the early January price, sometime in the March-May period. This is not shaping up as a typical year.

New crop December corn futures often find a way to move higher during the spring. In 12 of the 20 years since 1990,  the March-May period has offered producers the chance to sell December futures at least 5% higher than the early January price. I can find only 3 years (1994, 2001 & 2002) when new crop prices were persistently lower in the spring than at the start of the new year. 

Unless we see a strong rally in April or May, we will add 2010 to this list of atypical years.


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