Posted by: usset001 | August 25, 2011

Pricing 2012 Hard Red Spring Wheat

Two days ago I took action on my mythical farms, pricing hard red spring wheat for the 2012 crop year. My plans will be posted on my website in the next day or so.

I dragged my feet for a long time. It had my attention last December, when the Sep’12 contract began trading in earnest, close to $8/bushel. I watched it trade above $9 in February, only to collapse below $8 in March. I watched a second rally to $9.80 in late May, and another collapse to below $8 in June (June was a BAD month for wheat prices).

Here we are again, back above $9. The market feels perky but I look at the record in cotton since March (straight down – who saw that coming?) and remind myself that it is not a bad thing to get some wheat priced early and on the books. By any measure, $9 futures/$8.50 cash spring wheat is profitable.

I am 50% sold on my 2012 crop at an average Sep’12 futures price of $9.04 or a cash price of about $8.50 per bushel.


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