Posted by: usset001 | September 30, 2011

Great September collapses

Four great September collapses: Red Sox, corn, Braves and soybeans

Yesterday I drove to Mankato, Minnesota to speak to 100 bankers and farm business management specialists, all faithful users of FINPACK software (maybe you should be using it too). Two points of interest from my 90 minute drive: (1) the fall colors, still a week away from peak, were beautiful along the Minnesota River and, (2) the radio waves were lit up with talk about the baseball playoffs, and losses on Wednesday night that put an exclamation point on historic collapses by the Red Sox and Braves.

In case you had your head in the sand, the Elias Sports Bureau noted that Boston became the first team to miss the postseason after leading by as many as nine games for a playoff spot entering September. In the National League, the Cardinals made the playoffs after trailing Atlanta by 10½ games as recently as August 25.

Many sport analysts were talking of Boston and Atlanta as the greatest September collapses ever known to man.

Hmm – the greatest September collapses ever? Obviously, the talking heads in the world of sports do not follow the corn and soybean markets.

December corn traded as high as $7.66 per bushel on September 1. It closed last night at $6.32½, and a bearish stocks report has the market looking at a 25-30 cent lower opening. We have a shot at ending the month with a 20% decline in corn prices. I am not the Elias Sports Bureau of futures statistics, but that must rank up there with the greatest of all September collapses.

November soybeans peaked at $14.56 per bushel on the first day of the month. It closed yesterday at $12.30 and, if the opening calls hold, we have a shot at closing at or below $12 per bushel, an 18% decline.

The Red Sox and Braves have nothing on the corn and soybean markets.

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