Posted by: usset001 | October 7, 2011

Timing of November soybean futures highs and lows

Yesterday I was asked about the timing of new crop contract lows for corn and soybeans and I responded with information on corn. Today, I make the same analysis of soybeans..

Again, I went back to 1980 to review the timing of November soybean futures highs and lows starting in January of the contract delivery year. This is not “life-of-contract” highs and lows – I’m simply looking at the last 11 months of trading activity, starting as early as January 2 and ending with expiration in November. I looked at closing prices, and not the highs or lows within any day.

Unlike corn, a month-by-month analysis of soybeans sheds a few interesting nuggets of information. For example, there is a cluster of highs in June or July (11 of 32 years, or more than a third of the years). There is also a cluster of lows in October and November (11 of 31 years – 2011 is not over yet).

Fequency by month of the November soybean futures contract highest or lowest closing price, 1980-2011

High

Low

Jan

3

5

Feb

2

3

Mar

3

1

Apr

1

2

May

1

0

Jun

7

2

Jul

4

3

Aug

2

3

Sep

3

1

Oct

1

6

Nov

5

5

The Oct-Nov lows also show in the accompanying quarterly chart (and note that the last quarter is actually just two months). Quarterly data also shows that spring lows (AMJ) are not common.

More tendencies and few certainties, and a fun peak at the data.


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