Posted by: usset001 | November 21, 2013

2014 Pre-Harvest Grain Marketing Plans are posted

2014 corn preMy 2014 pre-harvest marketing plans for corn, soybeans and HRS wheat are now posted here. They look very similar to my 2013 pre-harvest plans, with modestly lower minimum futures price objectives ($5.40 Dec’14 corn, $11.60 Nov’14 soybeans and $7.50 Sep’14 HRS wheat). The sources I read indicate a slight easing in production costs in the year ahead. Break-even production costs estimates are an important part of my marketing plans; they are used to create minimum pricing objectives.

The good news is that the plans are now posted. The bad news is that prices for Dec’14 corn futures, Nov’14 soybean futures and Sep’14 spring wheat futures are not up to my minimum pricing standards – I’ve done no pricing of the 2014 crop. Soybean and spring wheat price levels are very close to my minimum price starting points. Corn is not. With Dec’14 corn futures trading close to $4.60/bu., I am 80 cents away from my initial price objective. It looks like I will need some patience.

It’s been a difficult three months for corn and soybean prices. The markets turned lower in late summer and the bears are out in full force.  The wheat market was showing signs of life up until mid-October but the rally was short-lived. Like the CBOT corn contracts, Minneapolis wheat contracts recently established life-of-contract lows.

Patience. The bears are prowling and today it is difficult to see what will turn this market higher. But I don’t like chasing the market lower, and I certainly don’t like to start pricing a new crop at levels below my production costs. Patience.

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