Posted by: usset001 | March 28, 2014

All knotted up over the Planting Intentions Report on Monday

soybeansiconBefore the days of nearly 24-hour electronic markets, the “morning call” was very important and traders put a great deal of effort into trying to figure out if the market would open 3 or 5 or 7 cents higher. One morning I asked a fellow pit trader at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, “What’s the call this morning, up or down?” He flatly replied, “Yes – the market will go up or down.” He was not very helpful.

I’m developing the same call for the planting intentions report on Monday. On the one hand, I see that the trade has big expectations for soybean acres, up 4-5 million acres and a new record for the U.S. On the other hand, I read some sharp people downplaying a big shift to soybean acres in the I-states. I expect a surprise on Monday and a sharp market reaction. The market will go up or down.

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