Posted by: usset001 | July 9, 2014

Minnesota soybean conditions and yield potential

MN soybean yields 1984-2014For the current crop year, the Minnesota trend-line yield for soybeans is 43.2 bu./acre in the current crop year. This is based on a simple linear regression of the last 30 years. As of July 6, the Minnesota soybean crop is sporting a crop conditions index (CCI) of 359, somewhat below average for this time of year (see my previous post for an explanation of the CCI). Despite the below average CCI, I’m holding out hope for a trend-line yield for 2014, assuming some favorable growing conditions over the next 4 weeks.

To calculate the Minnesota soybean CCI as of July 6, I did the following math…
(8% excellent * 5) + (53% good * 4) +(31% fair *3) + (6% poor * 2) + (2% very poor * 1) = 359

MN soybean conditionsAs of early/mid-July, this index has been as low as 269 and 239 in 1988 and 1993, respectively. Unlike corn, a CCI index for soybeans above 400 is uncommon for this time of year, occurring just once (404 CCI in 1994, the first time Minnesota soybean yields averaged 40 bu./acre).

For the record, the highest CCI ever recorded for the Minnesota soybean crop was 420, in the late August, 2010. Minnesota soybean yields averaged 45 bu./acre in 2010, the second best yield average ever posted (vs. 45.5 in 2005).


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