Posted by: usset001 | July 9, 2014

Minnesota spring wheat conditions and yield potential

MN spring wheat yieldsThe Minnesota trend-line yield for spring wheat in 2014 is 52.7 bu./acre (based on a simple linear regression of the last 30 years). Unless we enjoy some sort of miraculous recovery over the next two weeks, the Minnesota wheat crop is heading for yield well below trend. As of July 6, the Minnesota spring wheat crop has a crop conditions index (CCI) of 328 (see my previous post for an explanation of the CCI). This is the 4th lowest CCI recorded for the Minnesota spring wheat crop in early/mid-July since USDA started tracking crop conditions in 1986. Our Minnesota spring wheat crop has had too much rain, and a below average crop is on the horizon.

To calculate the Minnesota spring wheat CCI as of July 6, I did the following math…
(5% excellent * 5) + (36% good * 4) +(45% fair *3) + (9% poor * 2) + (5% very poor * 1) = 328

MN wheat conditionsConditions as of early/mid-July were worse in 1988 (CCI of 179), 1995 (311) and 2002 (318). Yields in 1988 were disastrous. Yields in 1995 and 2002 were 24% and 26% below trend, respectively. Maybe a better comparison is 1987 and 1999, when the CCI of 328 was almost the same as 2014. 1987 managed to eke out an above average yield, while yields in 1999 were 10% below trend. My best guess for Minnesota wheat yields in 2014 is 40-45 bu./acre corn.

For the record, the highest CCI ever recorded for the Minnesota spring wheat crop was 428, recorded in late June, 2003. Minnesota spring wheat yields averaged 58 bu./acre that year, which remains the highest average yield ever posted in Minnesota.


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