Posted by: usset001 | May 1, 2015

Minnesota yield expectations for corn in 2015

MN corn yields 1985 2015

USDA, NASS data

What can we expect for corn yields in Minnesota in 2015? Extending the trend over the past 30 years indicates a trend-line yield of 174.9 bu./acre. USDA data tells us that the record for Minnesota corn yields was set in 2010, when the state average 177 bu./acre. It is interesting to note every year since 2010 – the past four years (2011-2014) – Minnesota has had 4 consecutive years of below trend yields. We need to go back to the Dust Bowl of the 1930’s for the last time that was true.

The drought of 1988 stands out in this chart, as does the short crop of 1993, caused by excessive water and cooler temps. My friend Dr. Elwynn Taylor once described the year as a great example of “lots of growth, but no development.” The drought of 2012 does NOT stand out in this chart – Minnesota corn yields were very good relative to the rest of the drought ravaged Corn Belt states.

Note the slope of the trend-line – 2.29X – it’s another way of saying that Minnesota corn yields have been improving by an average of 2.3 bu./year over the last 30 years.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Categories

%d bloggers like this: