Posted by: usset001 | May 4, 2015

Corn prices in the 2015/2016 marketing year

corniconOn Friday, Dec’15 corn futures closed at $3.80/bu., placing May 1 new crop quotes at their lowest level since 2007 (on May 1, 2007, Dec’07 futures were quoted at $3.79). With Dec’15 futures near $3.80 and deferred 2016 contracts (March, May, July and September) trading at $3.90 – $4.05/bu., the futures market is forecasting a national average corn price of $3.95/bu. for the 2015/2016 marketing year. This figure is 25-35 cents lower than the fundamental outlooks presented recently by three different Universities.

On April 16, 2015, Dr. Darrel Good and Dr. Scott Irwin wrote a piece for Farmdoc titled, “Projecting the 2015-16 Corn Balance Sheet and Price Implications.” They project the an average corn price of $4.25/bu. Drs. Good and Irwin use a trend projection of 164bu./acre for corn in 2015.

The latest AgMRC (Agricultural Marketing Resource Center) Renewable Energy & Climate Change Newsletter was released on April 27. In this newsletter, Dr. Robert Wisner, a biofuels economist at AgMRC, offered his take on corn supply and demand and prices in 2015. Assuming a national corn yield of 165 bu./acre, he projects a national average corn price of $4.20/bu. in 2015/2016.

On April 30, writing for AgManager.info, Dr. Daniel O’Brien, Agricultural Economist at Kansas State University, offered a “normal crop” price projection of $4.30/bu. KSU is using a long term trend yield of 162.3 bu./acre for 2015.

All three of these projections have one thing in common; a subdued view of long-term trend yields for corn. Corn plantings are off to a very good start and, today, a rosier outlook for yield rules.


Responses

  1. Is anyone taking into consideration that 30+ million chickens will not be fed in Iowa alone? This is not accounting for the turkeys that have been destroyed by the Avian Influenza epidemic. That’s 30 million bushels of corn alone not being fed to chickens.

  2. Corn analyst is like poliction. They tell what you like to hear


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